PARTY OVER: 3 REASONS WHY BRAZIL WILL LOSE TO GERMANY

　
1. MORE STEEL THAN STYLE

This isn't the Brazil of your younger years. The samba like style, the attacking with flair & the dynamic finishing have been replaced by gritty, crushing tackles, garbage goals & very few sequences of slick passing. This Brazil team is more likely to put in some very hard tackles & often illegal tackles via Thiago Silva, Fernandinho & Paulinho rather than catch you on the counter.

We've seen Brazilian flair in spurts, like the wonder free kick goal by David Luiz against Colombia yesterday or Neymar's superb strikes against Cameroon, but even the most casual football fan can see that Brazil is not attacking as they are accustomed to. The attack which shell shocked the Spaniards at the Confederations Cup last year is nowhere to be seen. Instead the Brazilians have adopted a rather intimidating & uncharacteristic approach: playing an aggressive defensive game in the midfield & taking advantage on set pieces. Why have they employed this style? It's quite simple: the Brazilian's cannot live off their superiority in skill as they have had over other teams in the past. The players that Scolari has selected are the best that the country has to offer, but they do not have the offensive talent to put away games. Instead Scolari's men are working their tails off & grinding out games.

In the past 2 matches, all 3 of Brazil's goals in open play have come through set pieces, two of which came off of corner kicks that were poorly defended. While this is a dimension of Brazil that we have never seen, there is no coincidence that in the past 2 matches (against Chile & Colombia), Neymar was kept relatively quiet. This goes to show that if is a team is able to contain Neymar (or come close to it), the Brazilians do not have many other ideas. You can blame it on squad nervousness, a lack of strategy or a lack of chemistry, but the Brazilians are a one man team offensively. With Neymar ruled out for the rest of the tournament, a Selecao will need to find a new strategy to employ by July 8th or otherwise the Germans will put an end to the party & send the hosts packing.

　
2. OSCAR & FRED STRUGGLES

While the tactics of Luis Felipe Scolari may be questioned, I don't think much can be changed on that front. Every team has certain strengths in its squad, and subsequently a few weaknesses as well. Only the top 1 or 2 teams in the world have little or no weaknesses. Brazil, although a good team, have plenty of weaknesses. The team's strength & depth lies in its midfield, but unlike previous years, skilful flair players are at a minimum, but gritty and combative midfielders, who play farther back, are its strength. The likes of Ramires, Fernandinho, Luis Gustavo & Paulinho have had their ups & downs in this tournament but have provided decent cover in front of Thiago Silva & David Luiz, in addition to scrappy & physical play (particularly against Colombia).

However Brazil really needs help at the creative midfielder and striker positions. Service to strikers has been poor, but so has link play between the strikers & the midfielders. Brazil has looked most dangerous when Neymar has taken defenders on & put opponents in uncomfortable situations. The downside to this though is that Brazil has looked like a group of individual players trying make an impact on the match all by themselves (mainly through Neymar & sometimes Hulk).

But without Neymar & his attack for the rest of the tournament, due to a fractured vertebrae, Brazil's link up play will have to be much better. Oscar has underachieved in most matches thus far, as the young Chelsea FC star is failing to take control of the midfield & follow in the footsteps of Kaka.

Coupled with Oscar's poor play is that it seems as though Fred is aging by the second. Runs behind opposing defences have been few & far between for the Fluminese man. While his play for the most part has been predictable, the service to him has also been poor. If Brazil want to make it past Germany, they will likely need to score at least 2 goals, but without Oscar, Fred, Hulk & Neymar's replacement (likely Willian or Bernard) playing at their top form, that will be virtually impossible.

3. DEFENSIVE FRAGILITY

For one moment in the 69th minute during yesterday's match, almost everyone could agree with Paris Saint Germain's valuation of David Luiz. A superb free kick from almost 30 metres out beautifully soared past the reach of David Ospina & into the top corner of the Colombian net. On that play, Luiz looked like a £50 million player. That is the price that the Parisian giants paid Chelsea FC for his services prior to the World Cup. Offensively, Luiz is without a doubt, the best defender in the world. His surging runs from the back into opposing defences are what other defenders can only dream of doing. On top of that, yesterday's free kick showed how sweetly he can strike a ball.

Defensively however is another an issue. Luiz could not cement a full time starting role at Chelsea FC due to the fact that he can be a defensive liability at times. Often caught surging forward & or out of position, Luiz's erratic defensive play coupled with the offensive tendencies of Marcelo & Dani Alves puts an extra burden on Thiago Silva & Brazil's combative midfielders. Luis Felipe Scolari opted to start Maicon instead of Dani Alves against Colombia, in part to make up for Brazil's limited defensive options. While Maicon’s inclusion in the side helped, Scolari has another major problem: he will be without his captain & defensive stalwart Thiago Silva, who picked up a yellow card against Colombia. What does this mean? Dante, solid defender from Bayern Munich will take his place. But can Dante play at Silva's level?  The likes of Mesut Ozil, Thomas Muller & Miroslav Klose will put extra stress on Luiz, Dante & Brazil's midfield. Now the question is: will they bend & survive or break entirely?